On the eve of the 2016 referendum on EU membership, official statistics show annual net immigration to the UK has risen to an unprecedented high of 336,000, with Brexit supporters ‘taking back control of borders’. fueled their demands.
Analysts expect new estimates from the National Bureau of Statistics next week to show net immigration has at least doubled from last year. This record is largely the result of government policy choices and has little to do with secret ship arrivals. from France.
For some Brexit hardliners in the UK, who saw Brexit as a way to drastically reduce immigration, this is a betrayal.Predictions for Thursday’s scheduled data have already been completed caused infighting In the 2019 election, he was at the head of the winning Conservative government under then-leader Boris Johnson, pledging to reduce net immigration.
Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has attempted to distance himself from that pledge, adopting a more pragmatic approach. avoid the commitment either way.
Instead, he focused on controversial measures the government is introducing to deal with the asylum system’s turmoil and curb immigration numbers. intersection Cross the strait in a small boat. A record 45,000 people arrived via this route last year.
Those who advocate a drastic reduction in overall immigration, such as the campaign group Migration Watch, are not easily persuaded by such tactics.
“Boats should not be allowed to be used to divert attention from the devastating levels of legal immigration for which the government is primarily responsible,” said Alp Mehmet, a former British diplomat and chairman of the group. rice field.
Governments and analysts expect a significant increase in net immigration in 2022, with some forecasting the number to exceed 700,000. But it’s mostly due to one-off factors that its scale has become astonishing.
Covid played a big role in curbing the early impact of the epidemic. New immigration rules after BrexitThese abolished the free movement of people from the EU, but to offset the impact on the labor market, ministers liberalized visa systems in the rest of the world to favor skilled workers.
Already released Home Office visa statistics for 2022 show that employers are actively using visa schemes for skilled workers, especially in the NHS and long-term care sectors, where the minister has It cut fees and waived some salary and skill requirements to stem the shortage. Visa figures also show that the number of international students coming to the UK has surged since Covid-19.
On the other hand, the influx of refugees from Ukraine and the arrival of British nationals (overseas) Status Attendees from Hong Kong boosted that number dramatically.
Taken together, the 2022 statistics show what Madeleine Sumption, head of the Oxford Migration Observatory think tank, describes as “cakeism”—both the attitudes of the majority of the public towards immigration and the way the public thinks about immigration. In , it became clear that he wanted two things that were incompatible at the same time. the government complies. In fact, people want a relatively liberal system that makes the impossible possible and accepts a small number of immigrants.
“It’s the same with finances. People support the idea of a balanced budget, but they also like different things we spend money on,” Sumption said, adding: added as Mass immigration plan. ”
Barring more surprises, economists expect immigration to ease from current highs as arrivals from Ukraine slow, students return home and the post-coronavirus job boom subsides. are doing.
“Universities are full and labor market pressures will ease,” said Jonathan Porths, a professor at King’s College. Job openings are down across the economy, he said, and hiring could slow in the health care sector if workers who have retired in the post-coronavirus burnout wave are replenished. claim.
But for Mr. Sunak, it has already become an issue within his frustrated party, which will lead to much higher levels of net immigration than officials expected when the post-Brexit regime was introduced.
And immigration experts don’t believe the government’s policies against illegal immigrants can end the refugee system’s record hold-ups and deter clandestine crossings by the next general election, expected next year.
Instead, Flaws in Illegal Immigration Bills According to both the Oxford Immigration Watch and the charity Refugee Council, the lack of working agreements with third countries that would allow for large-scale deportations would force the government to hold tens of thousands of people indefinitely. It is said that there is a possibility that it will not be possible to obtain
Business groups, meanwhile, say they are still suffering from acute labor shortages in low-wage sectors no longer hiring from the EU and are lobbying ministers to add more roles to the list of jobs in short supply. .
Despite public disagreements between ministers on last week’s programme, Policy change under discussion It’s a relatively minor change to the overall framework.
Prime Minister Jeremy Hunt told business leaders at the recent annual meeting of the British Chamber of Commerce that the government was “always pragmatic at the last minute” and warned against expanding the list of jobs in short supply. is positive, but suggested that he is not positive about drastic expansion of low-skilled human resources. immigration.
So far, the public seems to be relatively acquiesced.the opinion is quite soft Since the eve of the EU referendum, 66% of Britons have supported strict restrictions (if not outright bans) on immigration.
The FT’s analysis of a joint World Values Survey and European Values Survey found that only 31 percent attended the camp last year. One survey found that the population as a whole is deprioritizing migration, with only one in four Britons citing migration as a priority. Ipsos survey last month.
“I continue to expect immigration to become more important in public opinion. rice field. But this week’s data could start to change that, she added.
