The dollar is on track to record a surge in the third week as China’s weak economic data exacerbates concerns about a global recession.
The dollar index, which measures currencies against the other six companies, fell 0.3% on Friday, but remained at its highest level in about 20 years — up 1.2% this week.
The index has risen 4% in the last three weeks, boosted by the purchase of shelters and the expectations of the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates this month as well. This is the largest rise in that period since 2020.
In the stock market, the FTSE All-World Index’s developed and emerging market shares rose 0.2% on Friday, but fell to 22% year-to-date, losing more than 3% a week.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index, China’s major stock market accessible to international investors, fell 2.2% on Friday, the largest weekly decline since March 2020, and fell 6.6% this week.
Deutsche Bank strategist George Saraberos said in a note to clients that “the market will continue to accelerate the recession and (of course) increase the likelihood of a hard landing.”
Brent crude, an international oil benchmark that fell to the last level seen before Russia invaded Ukraine on Thursday, rose on Friday but suffered a weekly loss of 5.7%.
“Unlike financial assets such as stocks, commodity prices are more consistent than expected,” said Hani Redha, multi-asset fund manager at PineBridge Investments. “That is, what we can read from oil prices is that demand is weakening.”
China’s economy Only 0.4% expansion In the three months to June, economists’ expectations for a 1.2% rise are largely missed in the severe blockade caused by the Beijing fight to eradicate the coronavirus compared to the same period last year. did.
In the United States, rising inflation, economic stagnation, and the Fed’s market expectations have raised interest rates to about 3.6% by February next year. Darkened economic outlook..
The quarterly closing season also began with a sour note with a U.S. bank JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley And money manager Black lock There is no revenue forecast. Futures trading suggested that Wall Street’s S & P 500 index rose 0.1% at the New York Open, losing about 3% a week.
Meanwhile, the European government is facing worsening living costs. Russia cuts gas supply..
Friday’s euro rose 0.4% to $ 1.005 Below $ 1 For the first time in 20 years earlier this week.
For European equities, the regional STOXX 600 index rose 0.6% in the summer thin trading and the London FTSE 100 rose 0.9%. Stoxx is down about 16% annually.
In the US Treasury market, benchmark 10-year bond yields fell 0.03% to 2.93%. Yields, which underpin global debt prices, fell from about 3.5% a month ago because of fears that the recession would supply demand for low-risk government debt products. As prices rise, bond yields fall.
The Treasury yield for two years traded at 3.1% on the so-called reverse yield curve pattern, which has historically preceded the recession.